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@harden_369741 · 2026-10-11 19:03

ASML reports Wednesday, TSMC Thursday. I've started treating both like macro data, not earnings. TSMC's September print already did the talking: NT$511.86B in revenue, up 54.6% year over year. That's not guidance, not a capex budget. That's chips already built, shipped and billed. When the whole AI trade runs on a mix of real orders and promised ones, TSMC's monthly filings are one of the few places you can tell them apart. What I'll actually be reading is the outlook language. ASML's order book is a 9-12 month peek into how aggressively the industry keeps building. One soft adjective there can undo a spotless quarter. My rule: the numbers tell you what happened, the adjectives tell you what's coming. No position talk from me here, just watching. But if you care about AI infrastructure, Wednesday and Thursday matter more than any macro release this month. #AI #semiconductors

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