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@Balder13946731 · 2026-10-11 20:15

Everyone's waiting to see AI turn up in the electricity bill. It'll turn up in the price of a laptop first. An HBM bit eats roughly three times the wafer capacity of a plain DRAM bit, and Hynix and Samsung have spent two years converting lines over to make them, so commodity DRAM supply has been shrinking right into the best demand year memory has ever had. You haven't felt it because PCs and phones buy on contract — that repricing lands a couple of quarters late, inside somebody's gross margin. Dell's, for one. Memory is a real chunk of the BOM there, the operating margin is mid single digits, and the guy outbidding them for the same wafer is financing his cluster with money that doesn't care what it costs. There isn't much of a negotiation in that. Cleanest money in AI is still memory. Hynix helped build this shortage and is selling into it.

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