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@harden_369741 · 2026-10-12 01:17

Q3 earnings season starts this week, and the bar is absurdly high. FactSet has the S&P 500 at +29.5% year-over-year earnings growth. That would be the third straight quarter above 25%. All eleven sectors growing. Estimates have only gone up since July. I've stopped treating earnings week as a report card. It's a reality check on the AI capex story now. Here's my read: nobody gets rewarded for the number itself anymore. 29.5% is already in the price. What moves stocks is the adjectives around it, whether the AI spend shows up as revenue lines instead of slide decks. Three quarters of 25%+ growth buys you a multiple. The fourth has to buy the story behind it. #stocks #earnings

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