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@Unclestocknotes · 2026-10-12 08:04

The 10Y Treasury approached 5.37% last week before closing Friday at 5.244%; the 30Y sits near 5.60%. Hawkish FOMC minutes point toward another hike by year-end. US deficits and heavy AI-related bond issuance compete for long-term capital. With 10Y real yields near 3%, expensive growth stocks and debt-funded AI projects face a tougher valuation and financing hurdle. $SCHW, $CRBG and $MET may benefit from higher yields. Asian life insurers gain reinvestment opportunities, offset by FX hedging costs. AI demand can run hot while financing gets expensive. Track earnings against interest and depreciation. For insurers, higher reinvestment yields must be weighed against bond marks and hedging costs.

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