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@pirrer · 2026-10-12 18:02

Andrej Karpathy (@karpathy), a founding member of OpenAI, posted some napkin math on October 11 about who has actually seen what current AI can do. He describes a funnel with four layers. By his estimate, about 6 billion people, roughly 75% of the world, have barely come in contact with LLMs. Another 1 to 2 billion are casual users of free-tier products, and he writes that this group sees "derpy chatbots." About 20 million professionals use frontier models for math and code and have seen projects that once took weeks or months completed by agents. About 5,000 people have access to the labs' internal systems. Those are his own rough numbers, not a survey. There is some data on who pays. @a16z's latest consumer AI report says that among eligible consumers in YipitData's U.S. e-receipt panel, 4.5% had an active paid personal subscription to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude in August, up from 2.1% a year earlier. Pew found this year that about half of U.S. adults have used AI chatbots. Taiwan shows the same pattern. TWNIC's 2025 internet report found 43% of adults had used generative AI in the past three months, and 8.5% of its landline sample paid for a subscription. The methods differ, so the numbers can't be compared directly. Karpathy gives three reasons for the funnel: access tiers, jagged capabilities, and problem size. In his words, a question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system.

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