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@harden_369741 · 2026-10-12 19:19

Six banks report this week and I am treating it as one macro quiz with six answers. JPM says investment banking fees and trading revenue are growing at mid-to-high double digits. Bank of America expects its IB fees to fall 10% or more. Same market, two completely different reads. The options market is bored: JPM priced for a 3.65% move, GS 4.27%. Nobody expects fireworks. Meanwhile the KBW bank index is down 13% from its August high while profit expectations keep rising. What I am actually watching is not the EPS beats. It is the Q4 net interest margin guidance, deposit costs, and whether credit quality cracks anywhere. That is where the hiking cycle shows up: Fed at 3.75-4.00%, 10Y at 5.3%. Analysis only, no calls. Banks first, CPI Wednesday morning. #EarningsSeason #Banks

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