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@haotianche21370 · 2026-10-13 12:49

🔋🔋Deep dive on CATL: 3 core questions on demand, margins & competitive landscape. 🔔CATL’s valuation sits near historical lows. Analyst report: 2026/2027 net profit forecast ¥94bn / ¥110bn, PE 15x /13x. Market divergence is largely priced in. 📌1/ Demand Lithium demand will keep 20%+ CAGR through 2030. Growth drivers shift toward EU EVs, emerging markets & non-US storage. Near-term production volatility is mostly inventory adjustment, waiting for lithium price stabilization. 📌2/ Profit & margins New capacity depreciation has limited hit to CATL. Its high-end & overseas product mix insulates it from brutal low-end price war. Regulators are watching overcapacity. Anti-involvement policies may rebalance supply & demand. NEV export VAT rebate cut impact is manageable for CATL. 📌3/ Competitive landscape EV buyers now recognize battery brands. Cases like Geely & Leapmotor saw sales lift after deepening cooperation with CATL. CATL is building battery brand, after-market service & global charging network to strengthen moat. 📌4/ Closing question Is the lithium sector’s worst over? Will overseas expansion become CATL’s biggest margin buffer?

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