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@damnang2 · 2026-10-14 01:58

We should acknowledge that China has been investing in 3D DRAM and vertical cell structures for years. Against the backdrop of restricted access to EUV equipment, Chinese companies have been pursuing these technologies for quite some time. When I met with someone at SK hynix earlier this year, I even heard them suggest that China’s 3D DRAM technology could be at a comparable or potentially more advanced level, making it something they were watching closely. What frustrates me whenever news like this comes out of China is how some ignorant media outlets assume that Chinese companies will simply disregard profitability and drive market prices into the ground. Their strategy of lower margins and higher volumes is ultimately about making money. I believe CXMT’s immediate priorities are replacing imports in China and expanding profitable shipments. I do not believe deliberately crashing global selling prices would help them achieve those goals. The 4F² technology behind this announcement is an important way to increase bit output. But translating that into a meaningful increase in commercial supply requires process transitions, yield stabilization, and customer adoption. My expectation is that reaching that scale will take at least another year or two from now. Frankly, attributing the current selloff in memory stocks to fears that the AI bubble has burst, with everyone declaring that AI is finished, sounds more convincing to me. Don’t you think?

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