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@cybssky · 2026-10-14 21:00

US September CPI drops tonight at 8:30pm Beijing time (8:30am ET). Consensus has headline at 3.7% YoY, up from 3.4% in August — the number is already written in the script. The interesting split: core is expected to cool to 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3%. This round of inflation is an energy story — it hasn't spread yet. The Fed watches core, not headline. OCBC's line: it would take 0.4% core MoM or higher to materially shift rate-hike pricing. So tonight, don't stare at the 3.7%. The real exam is whether core MoM holds at 0.2%. If it does, year-end hike expectations stay contained.

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