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@cybssky · 2026-10-15 22:15

US September PPI came in scorching hot, yet the 10-year Treasury yield actually fell to around 5.06%. Something feels off here. I went back through the numbers. Yesterday’s CPI was already hotter than expected at 3.7% YoY. Today’s PPI was even worse, up 1.3% MoM and 6.3% YoY. PPI basically tracks how prices are changing at the producer level, before they reach consumers. Energy prices jumped 10.8% in a single month. Gasoline surged 20.3%. Even PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5%. August’s numbers were revised higher too. Inflation pressure is clearly building, and the Fed has even more reason to keep rates elevated or consider another hike. But here’s what I find strange. The 10-year Treasury yield didn’t keep pushing toward 5.3%. It actually moved lower. The 2-year yield fell too. My guess is that two forces are pulling the market in opposite directions. Hot inflation is pushing rate expectations higher. At the same time, weakness in tech stocks may be driving investors into Treasuries for safety. And according to CME FedWatch, the probability of an October rate hike barely moved, from 33.2% to 33.8%. BTC is also under pressure around $80,700. I’m not rushing to call $80K the bottom. Right now, I’m watching three things. Will the 10-year yield push back toward 5.2%–5.3%? Can BTC hold $80K? Will the market start pricing in a higher probability of another Fed hike? If Treasury yields start climbing again while BTC breaks below $80K, that’s a combination I’d take seriously. But what if yields keep falling while BTC holds $80K or even reclaims $82K? Then I have to wonder. What is the market actually afraid of right now? Inflation, or something deeper happening in tech stocks and credit markets?

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