推文

@pirrer · 2026-10-17 03:20

TSMC has given four forecasts for its 2026 revenue growth this year, and each one was higher than the last: close to 30% in January, more than 30% in April, the low 40s in July, and about 44% at its October 15 earnings call, all in U.S. dollars. Asked about demand, Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said TSMC still thinks demand is higher than supply. Third-quarter revenue was $46.72 billion, above the top of its July guidance of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Gross margin was 66.4%: out of every $100 of revenue, about $66.40 was left after the cost of making the chips, $58.70 after operating expenses, and $51.10 as net profit. Free cash flow was NT$476.6 billion, about $15 billion. Gross margin slipped 1.3 percentage points from the second quarter's 67.7%. TSMC attributes the drop to the early ramp of its 2-nanometer process, and estimates that overseas fabs will cut gross margin by about 2 percentage points this year and 3 to 4 points in later years. The 2026 capital budget is $60 billion to $64 billion, of which $40.64 billion was spent in the first three quarters. Wei said close to 20 fab projects are underway worldwide, 13 of them in Taiwan. TSMC normally stops adding capacity once a process reaches its target, but in April it named three fabs that would use 3-nanometer, and in October it added a fourth in Tainan. On Terafab, the chip fab Tesla and SpaceX plan in Texas, Wei said in April that Tesla is both a customer and a competitor. In October he said a TSMC team had gone to Texas to evaluate, talks are ongoing, and any arrangement would require TSMC to run the fab. TSMC's ADRs closed at $422.25 in the first U.S. trading session after the call, down 1.8%, and about 12% below the $482.30 close on October 6. Wei also said consumer and price-sensitive markets are weak, so TSMC will plan more cautiously for 2027.

曝光 293 · 评论 3 · 点赞 4 · 书签 0