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@0xzxcom · 2026-10-17 12:06

A crypto KOL argues that the risk of MSCI removing MicroStrategy (Strategy, MSTR) is already priced in, so MSTR may not fall much further even when passive selling actually hits, after the stock closed down 9.56% the previous day. • The core claim is that the removal risk is already reflected in the price, so the actual index-driven selling may be a smaller incremental shock than the headline suggests. • The key valuation gauge is net mNAV, which compares MSTR's share price to its BTC holdings net of preferred stock and debt; a drop below 1 would mean the stock trades under the net value of its bitcoin per share, a level the author says is rare and signals operating or valuation worry. • Holders and anyone trading MSTR as a leveraged BTC proxy are most exposed; the author's case rests on Strategy's cash cushion (about three years of dividends) and BTC staying above its roughly $75,000 cost basis, both of which are the assumptions to check. • Likely reaction: the price action is dominated by passive index flows and sentiment toward BTC, so a sharp move on the actual removal date is possible even if the author's 'priced in' view holds. Index-rebalancing dates and any BTC move toward or below the ~$75,000 cost basis could quickly test whether the 'already priced in' thesis and the net mNAV floor hold.

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