$MU $SKHY $CXMT A real memory bust has a look to it: full warehouses, DRAM pri… · @carrioresearch · TwKit

@carrioresearch

$MU $SKHY $CXMT A real memory bust has a look to it: full warehouses, DRAM prices cut in half, quarterly losses. None of that shows up right now. A bust also needs one more thing, though. Customers have to be able to walk away. In past cycles they just stopped ordering and the chips piled up at the maker. Micron's biggest customers have mostly signed that option away. As of its Sept 30 earnings, Micron has 26 multi-year take-or-pay supply contracts, where the buyer pays for the agreed volume whether it takes delivery or not. Micron puts them at over 35% of its revenue through 2030, and some now run into 2031. Customers have put up $32B in commitments on those contracts, mostly cash deposits. Micron also reports about $150B of remaining performance obligations, and that figure only counts committed volumes at minimum prices. So the order cancellations that turned past downturns into busts are now written out of the contracts.

曝光 623 · 评论 0 · 点赞 5 · 书签 2