Foreign retail investors are completely missing one fundamental truth about le… · @LIWEI_TWCapital · TwKit

@LIWEI_TWCapital

Foreign retail investors are completely missing one fundamental truth about leading-edge nodes: semiconductor node migration is a one-way street. So if customers have access to 2nm or 3nm, nobody is going to downgrade back to 8nm just to save a bit on wafer costs—the compute power and performance-per-watt (which directly dictates data center electricity bills and TCO) aren't even in the same league, not to mention the massive NRE costs of redesigning and re-spinning masks. So, even if the cycle really turns after TSMC’s massive fab expansion, the mature-node foundries are the ones that will die first—not TSMC. The capacity waterfall logic behind this is simple: in a downturn, tier-1 customers will stick with leading-edge nodes to maintain their competitive edge. Any freed-up capacity simply allows small-to-medium customers—who were previously priced out or stuck at the back of the queue—to skip the line and squeeze their orders directly into TSMC’s advanced nodes. The end result? Tier-2 foundries get their order books sucked dry, leaving mature nodes with zero demand. Following this logic, mature nodes are the canary in the coal mine for the semiconductor cycle. Once order volumes at mature foundries start dropping, we can certainly argue that the bubble is bursting and the cycle is reversing. But the reality right now is that even mature nodes—benefiting from the spillover demand of AI peripheral chips (like PMICs, I/O dies, etc.)—are completely booked out. Everyone is still scrambling for capacity. If you don't believe me, just go ask $UMC. Since even the tail-end of the capacity food chain hasn't loosened up, I believe we are still very safe on a fundamental level. As for other factors—like institutional whales trying to blow up smaller AI funds and causing market sell-offs—that’s pure positioning and liquidity games, which is beyond Liwei’s control. For that, you might need to switch the channel to macro expert @ShanghaoJin . At the end of the day, Liwei focuses on ground-level industry logic. Those who get it, get it. $TSM $UMC $NVDA $AMD $INTC $UMC guided for capacity utilization to exceed 90% in Q3 2026, up from 85% in Q2, with wafer shipments expected to grow by a high-single-digit percentage sequentially. That points to improving demand across its mature and specialty processes, with power management ICs, sensors and microcontrollers driving a strong recovery in its 8-inch business. https://www.umc.com/zh-TW/News/press_release/Content/investor/20260729

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