A key part of medical statistics is using demography to predict disease. The r… · @fuxianyi · TwKit

@fuxianyi

A key part of medical statistics is using demography to predict disease. The real test of demographic skill isn’t the forecasting method but parameter selection, and that’s exactly where establishment demographers (China’s official agencies, the UN, the US Census Bureau) fall short. Trained in the humanities, their knowledge is narrow. Birth, aging, illness and death are all medical matters, yet they’ve failed for years to see what basic medical knowledge makes obvious at a glance.

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