Putin is beginning to follow the trail after Trump opened the door to easing s… · @WizarGod · TwKit

@WizarGod

Putin is beginning to follow the trail after Trump opened the door to easing sanctions against Russia. That opening could become the starting point for a chain of subsequent developments. Putin is essentially beginning to “follow the trail” and explore the opportunities created by the sanctions loophole Trump has opened. That gap is now becoming the starting point for a series of subsequent developments. The timeline is clear. On October 9, Trump spoke with Putin by phone. The two sides reached an agreement on Russian diesel supplies to the United States and global markets. Trump announced that more than 300,000 tons would be supplied immediately, with additional shipments to follow. During the same call, Putin proposed a trilateral meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, potentially during the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19. The Kremlin confirmed that the idea had been discussed but said no final arrangements had been made. Zelensky was not included in the proposed meeting. Trump then took further action. On October 16, he signed an executive order waiving or suspending several key sanctions and tariff provisions under the Graham sanctions legislation—the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act—which Congress had passed in September and which was originally scheduled to take effect around October 18. These provisions included steep tariffs on Russian goods and tariffs of up to 100% on goods from major purchasers of Russian energy, such as China and India. Trump cited the “national interest” as justification, publicly stating that he did not want to do anything that might push Russia away from the negotiating table. He also emphasized domestic energy-price pressures, with the midterm elections approaching. Restrictions on Russian diesel supplies had already been eased. Zelensky publicly criticized the move as “rewarding Putin,” arguing that it would only encourage Russia to continue its attacks. Some U.S. lawmakers from both parties, along with European officials, also expressed concern that the decision would weaken pressure on Moscow. Russia, meanwhile, welcomed the move, describing it as historic. The Trump administration’s rationale is to prioritize economic incentives and diplomacy to keep Russia at the negotiating table while addressing high domestic energy prices, some of which have been attributed to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil-refining facilities. This is how an opening has emerged. Without securing major, reciprocal concessions from Russia, the United States has successively eased restrictions on Russian diesel supplies and suspended new sanctions. Putin is now seeking to use this opening to advance a framework more favorable to Moscow, including a proposed trilateral meeting that excludes Ukraine and negotiations centered on terms favorable to Russia. Everything that follows—from U.S.-China-Russia interactions and energy-price movements to mounting pressure on Ukraine’s front lines and the potential course of future negotiations—could develop from this opening. For now, no final agreement has been reached, and all sides are still maneuvering for strategic advantage.

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