#On-chain metrics analysis BTC: Standard-adjusted MVRV band (4Y rolling window… · @fly_welinkBTC · TwKit

@fly_welinkBTC

#On-chain metrics analysis BTC: Standard-adjusted MVRV band (4Y rolling window) The MVRV is calibrated using a four-year rolling mean and standard deviation, placing cycles of different maturity levels on the same scale for comparison to observe valuation pressures, support tests, and the degree of bubble. The model calculates the mean and overall standard deviation for the most recent 1,460 daily observations, and the Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current MVRV is from the four-year mean, mitigating the cross-cycle bias caused by the structural downward shift of previous bull market peaks as market capitalization expands. Standardized valuation status - within normal range The current MVRV is 1.560, and the Z score is -0.38, falling between -1σ 1.265 and +1σ 2.210; the 4-year mean/standard deviation is 1.738/0.472. The 7-day/30-day mean is approximately 1.527/1.555, and the Z score has rebounded by approximately +0.047 in the last 7 days, approximately +0.295 from the -1σ support level (on-chain date 2026-10-21). The BTC reference price is approximately $81,772. Zoning Reference: -1σ 1.265 indicates extreme undervaluation; -0.5σ 1.501 indicates undervaluation under observation; 4-Year Average 1.738; +0.5σ 1.974 indicates overvaluation under observation; +1σ 2.210 indicates overvaluation warning zone. In 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, deep capitulation, several weeks of stagnation, or rapid V-shaped recovery occurred near the -1σ band, but touching this line does not equate to an absolute bottom. A Z-score returning to between -1 and +1 usually indicates that valuation pressure has eased; subsequent observation should focus on whether it can recover the four-year average, and whether spot demand, liquidity, and price structure improve simultaneously. This is for cyclical research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. More curated on-chain cyclical indicators Portal https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/ Let you understand cycles just like a professional analyst $BTC

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