I Strongly Oppose the Tesla–SpaceX Merger (7/13) @elonmusk @Gwynne_Shotwell Is… · @mylifeonmystyle · TwKit

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I Strongly Oppose the Tesla–SpaceX Merger (7/13) @elonmusk @Gwynne_Shotwell Is SpaceX Overvalued? The Hidden Trap Behind a 30% Buyout Premium Wall Street is debating whether Tesla shareholders deserve a 20%, 30%, or even higher acquisition premium. But there’s a much bigger question: What exactly are Tesla shareholders getting in return? In an all-stock merger, the value of what you receive matters just as much as the price you’re offered. And SpaceX isn’t cheap. ① A $2 Trillion Valuation As of October 23, SpaceX trades at approximately $2 trillion in market capitalization. Its trailing 12-month revenue is roughly $32 billion. That’s a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 62×. SpaceX reported impressive Q3 results: Revenue: $14.6 billion Net income: $4.4 billion Revenue growth: 161% YoY Those numbers are extraordinary. But a 62× sales multiple already assumes enormous future success. How much of SpaceX’s next decade of growth is already priced in? ② Revenue Growth Isn’t Free Cash Flow SpaceX’s Q3 segment results reveal an interesting contrast. Connectivity generated $5.25 billion in revenue and $2.37 billion in operating income. Super Intelligence generated $7.56 billion in revenue but only $431 million in operating income. The AI business is growing rapidly, but its profitability remains relatively modest compared with revenue. Meanwhile, SI capital expenditures reached approximately $40 billion during the first nine months of 2026. SpaceX may eventually dominate AI infrastructure. But investors are already paying heavily for that possibility. ③ Let’s Stress-Test the Acquisition Premium Consider a hypothetical all-stock merger. Tesla standalone value: $1.53T SpaceX transaction value: $1.95T Tesla receives a 30% premium, bringing its transaction value to approximately $1.99T. Tesla shareholders receive roughly 50.5% of the merged company. Sounds attractive. Now suppose SpaceX’s actual fair value is only $1.50T. Assume Tesla’s fair value remains $1.53T, with no additional merger synergies. Combined fair value: $1.53T + $1.50T = $3.03T Tesla shareholders’ share: 50.5% × $3.03T ≈ $1.53T The entire 30% premium has effectively disappeared. This is an illustrative valuation scenario, not a claim that SpaceX is worth only $1.50T. ④ The Real Risk: Overpaying With Tesla Equity A stock-for-stock merger doesn’t magically create wealth. It redistributes ownership. If SpaceX is overvalued relative to Tesla, existing Tesla shareholders could surrender too much of their company’s future for too little economic value. And if SpaceX needs substantial additional equity financing, the ownership picture could change again. ⑤ My Conclusion I believe SpaceX has extraordinary long-term potential. But extraordinary potential doesn’t justify paying any price. Before approving a merger, Tesla shareholders deserve independent valuations of both companies, realistic cash-flow projections, and a transparent exchange ratio. A 30% premium means nothing if the stock you’re receiving is overpriced. I want Tesla shareholders to capture real economic value—not just an impressive headline. Next (8/13): Who Really Votes for Tesla Shareholders? @mylifeonmystyle #Tesla #SpaceX #TSLA

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