I Strongly Oppose the Tesla–SpaceX Merger (12/13) @elonmusk @Gwynne_Shotwell T… · @mylifeonmystyle · TwKit

@mylifeonmystyle

I Strongly Oppose the Tesla–SpaceX Merger (12/13) @elonmusk @Gwynne_Shotwell Ten Years of FSD Promises: Elon May See the Future, But Can He Predict When It Arrives? I believe in Elon Musk’s engineering vision. But his record on predicting commercialization timelines deserves scrutiny. For investors, being right ten years late can be extremely expensive. ① A Decade of Missed Deadlines 2016: Musk predicted a coast-to-coast autonomous drive by the end of 2017. 2018: He again suggested the demonstration was only months away. 2019: He predicted more than one million robotaxis by 2020. 2020–2022: Repeated predictions of imminent full autonomy. 2024: Tesla targeted commercial robotaxi operations in 2025. 2026: Robotaxi operations are expanding, but the million-vehicle vision remains unrealized. The technology advanced. The timelines repeatedly failed. ② Progress Doesn’t Erase Opportunity Costs Tesla now operates Robotaxis in several U.S. markets, including driverless vehicles in Austin. That’s meaningful progress. But limited geographic deployment isn’t the same as millions of privately owned Teslas operating autonomously nationwide. Tesla has indicated that eligible customer vehicles could begin joining its Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027. That’s seven years after Musk’s original million-robotaxi deadline. ③ Five Years Can Cost 38% of Present Value Imagine a business expected to generate $10 billion in free cash flow in 2025. Instead, that same $10 billion arrives in 2030. At a 10% discount rate: $10B ÷ 1.10⁵ = $6.21B A five-year delay reduces the present value of that cash flow by approximately 38%. That’s before additional development costs, competition, or execution risks. Technology eventually succeeding doesn’t validate the original financial assumptions. ④ Now Apply That Lesson to Space-Based AI A Tesla–SpaceX merger would expose Tesla shareholders to ambitious projects involving orbital computing, Starship, advanced chips, and satellite infrastructure. I believe these technologies have enormous potential. But commercial deployment requires overcoming significant engineering and economic challenges. What happens if profitability arrives in 2035 instead of 2030? Or 2040 instead of 2035? Shareholders cannot value distant, uncertain profits as though they were already here. ⑤ My Conclusion Musk has achieved things others considered impossible. But technological vision and accurate execution timelines are two different capabilities. I don’t expect perfect forecasts. I expect financial discipline. Before approving a merger, shareholders deserve credible cash-flow projections, capital requirements, and downside scenarios that account for potential delays. Great technology doesn’t eliminate the time value of money. I believe in Tesla’s autonomous future. I believe SpaceX could revolutionize AI infrastructure. But I won’t ignore the cost of waiting. Next (13/13): My Final Case Against the Tesla–SpaceX Merger. @mylifeonmystyle #Tesla #SpaceX #TSLA

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