$SPCX I wasn't going to share my target price because I didn't want to trigger… · @usppdd · TwKit

@usppdd

$SPCX I wasn't going to share my target price because I didn't want to trigger the entire $SPCX holder base, but it's Sunday and I have nothing better to do, lol. Here's how I'd value SpaceX. I'd break it down into three businesses: Starlink, rocket launches, and neocloud. Starlink did $5.25B in Q3 revenue and $3.5B in adjusted EBITDA. That's roughly $14B in annualized EBITDA. Even at 32-39x EBITDA, you're looking at $450-550B. That's already a very generous valuation. The launch business generated $1.77B in revenue and $357M in adjusted EBITDA. CapEx was $1.61B. I'd value the existing business plus Starship's future potential at $70-100B, with $120-150B in a bull case. Then there's neocloud/SI. Q3 revenue was $7.56B and adjusted EBITDA was $4.95B. Sounds amazing until you see the $16.44B in quarterly CapEx. To be fair, they're building capacity aggressively, so judging the business purely on today's CapEx would be shortsighted. But the real question is how much free cash flow all that investment will eventually generate. I'd put this business at $600-800B in my base case and $1T-1.2T in a bull case. That's a lot of value already baked in. Putting the three together, my rough SOTP comes out to: Bear: $58-70/share Base: $86-110/share Bull: $130-158/share These are rough estimates, not a precise DCF. I'm also trying to avoid double-counting Starship's value across the three businesses. Morningstar's fair value is $70, while some sell-side analysts are throwing out $200-300 or even higher. Maybe they're right, but sell-side targets tend to rely on optimistic assumptions, and investment banks can have commercial relationships with the companies they cover. At $150, you're paying for a lot of things to go right. Amazing company? Absolutely. Would I buy it at $150/share($2T market cap)? Not a chance.

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