$AAOI $LITE $COHR $AXTI When the "It's All Over" basket has to be built from n… · @carrioresearch · TwKit

@carrioresearch

$AAOI $LITE $COHR $AXTI When the "It's All Over" basket has to be built from names with even higher beta than $AAOI, AAOI has quietly become the defensive pick 😅 AAOI closed at $76.88 on Oct 27, half of its $154.89 close on Aug 17. Then look at China. Over the past month AAOI is down 21%. Eoptolink (SZSE: 300502) is down 41% and Innolight (SZSE: 300308) 29%. Those are the world's two largest optical module makers, with H1 net margins of 36% and 33%, and on Oct 23 Innolight said overseas customers have placed orders into 2027 and some have already given 2028 demand guidance. Next to that, AAOI's chart looks pretty calm. Outside China, the demand side hasn't cracked at all. Andy Bechtolsheim said in late September that OSFP module demand this year is closer to 150 million units, against a bit over 120 million actually shipped, because module makers can't get enough lasers. At OCP in mid-October he put module lead times at 9–12 months, up from about 3. Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston said on Oct 8 that some products are about 70% short next year and others about 30% short all the way through 2028. AAOI is building straight into that gap. Q2 revenue was $191.9M, up 86% YoY and back to non-GAAP profit. Q3 guidance is $255–290M. Capacity was close to 200k units a month in Q2, and the year-end target is about 650k a month of 800G and 1.6T. The share prices fell off a cliff while the order books kept getting longer. I'm bullish on optics, and I expect lasers, modules and InP substrates ($AXTI) to put up strong numbers together.

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