$SKHY $MU $CXMT SK HYNIX: CHINA CATCHING UP AND HBM SPEC CUTS ARE "NOTHING TO … · @carrioresearch · TwKit

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$SKHY $MU $CXMT SK HYNIX: CHINA CATCHING UP AND HBM SPEC CUTS ARE "NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT"‼️ The memory pie is still getting bigger, and we're nowhere near the stage where suppliers start fighting over slices: 1. Look at how fast the pie is growing. Q3 revenue was 104.6 trillion won, the first quarter ever above 100 trillion, at an 80% operating margin. Management says DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029 and HBM orders are more than 2x what it can supply. Its own release says supply won't catch up with demand through 2030, because leading-edge nodes keep getting harder and new fabs take years to build. 2. On HBM spec cuts, some customers are stacking fewer layers per HBM. Hynix called that "a representative example of demand overwhelming supply": with HBM this short, customers are spreading what they can get across more AI accelerators. The same bits in fewer layers means more cubes, more base dies and more back-end work, and higher capacity per die makes up for the lost layers. Fewer layers per stack, more stacks shipped. 3. On China, CXMT is growing fast and selling everything it makes. Hynix's answer on new cell designs was that technology implementation and commercial volume are two different dates, since yield, reliability, cost and customer qualification all have to be in place first. Meanwhile the Chinese clouds that buy from CXMT, Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance, are now asking Samsung and SK hynix for server DRAM LTAs too, with some reportedly pushing for terms out to 2035. China's own demand is growing faster than China's own supply. 4. Splitting the pie starts when supply catches up, and buyers are telling you they don't expect that soon. 14 customers, global cloud providers among them, have locked up more than half of hynix's 2027–28 capacity, with deposits and enforcement written into the contracts. You don't put down deposits on multi-year supply if you think a price war is around the corner. So the sell-off priced a fight over slices into a market that's still growing the pie. Hynix rallied nearly 10% in Seoul today. Through 2030 the limit on $SKHY and $MU is how many bits they can build, and they're selling into that gap.

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