$LITE $COHR $AXTI The Fed held at 3.75%-4% today in a 10-2 vote. Both dissents… · @carrioresearch · TwKit

@carrioresearch

$LITE $COHR $AXTI The Fed held at 3.75%-4% today in a 10-2 vote. Both dissents, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, wanted another quarter-point hike after September's. The 10-year was around 5.03% when the statement came out, and futures were already leaning toward a December hike going in. Two edits to the statement matter for AI capex. Growth went from "a solid pace" to "a strong pace." And September's "Today's policy action will support a timelier return" to 2% became "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance," so the next move is left open. The line "Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust" stayed word for word. Chair Kevin Warsh got asked directly about the AI build-out: "Interest rates have had an effect. You see market participants that are discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out." He also said the capex story is "not just strong, but it is broadening," and that it's much harder now to argue the economy is being carried by a small group of sectors. Here's how I read that for AI optics. The Fed's own statement gives productivity and investment credit for how strong the economy is. The tool it's using is the price of borrowed money, and that sorts the buyers. Builders funded by operating cash flow keep ordering. Builders that lean on the debt market, where Warsh says spreads have gapped out, either slow down or pay more. The same price of money hits the supply side too. Adding optical capacity means new fabs and new tools, paid for up front, long before the first wafer ships. With the 10-year at 5%, that expansion costs more, especially for smaller suppliers that fund growth by raising capital. So a higher-for-longer Fed trims some demand at the edges and slows new supply at the same time. If December brings another hike, I expect the shortage in AI optics to run longer, since new capacity gets more expensive to fund while the buyers paying cash keep their orders in. Suppliers whose capacity is already built and running, like $LITE, $COHR and $AXTI, come out ahead of the ones still waiting on financing.

曝光 734 · 评论 0 · 点赞 6 · 书签 1