The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Oct. 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Cook and Hamm… · @Unclestocknotes · TwKit

@Unclestocknotes

The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Oct. 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Cook and Hammack favoring a 25 bp increase. The statement upgraded economic activity from “solid” to “strong” while emphasizing the need for more information. Post-meeting futures priced roughly an 85% probability of a Dec. 9 hike, suggesting investors still view this as a pause within the tightening cycle. Warsh said politics played no role in the decision and that earlier tightening was beginning to work. His observation that rates also reach AI investment deserves attention. Debt-funded data-center developers could face rising financing costs before their projects generate sufficient cash. Long-duration growth equities remain exposed through both valuation discount rates and the cost of funding expansion. Holding this month offers limited relief for AI financing costs. Watch Nov. 6 jobs, Nov. 10 CPI, Nov. 13 PPI and the Nov. 18 minutes to assess whether December hike expectations hold. If falling equities widen credit spreads and weaken hiring or investment, the Fed will need to reassess the dosage. Across the AI supply chain, customers’ ability to keep paying increasingly matters alongside their order books.

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