$INTC fell approximately 28.6% despite Q3 revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% YoY… · @Unclestocknotes · TwKit

@Unclestocknotes

$INTC fell approximately 28.6% despite Q3 revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.52 versus $0.40 expected. Q4 drove the selloff: revenue guidance of $15–16 billion missed the $17.1 billion consensus, EPS was guided to $0.25, and adjusted gross margin falls from 44.1% to roughly 38%. An Israel fab shutdown, advanced-packaging substrate shortages and weaker PC demand combined to hit the outlook. The SOX declined 7.2%. Two separate problems deserve attention. Weaker PC demand reduces end-market sales: Intel expects 2026 PC units to decline 12%, with Q4 client revenue falling more than 20% sequentially. Substrate shortages constrain deliveries even where orders exist. Both hurt near-term revenue, but the recovery signals differ—consumer demand for one, restored supply for the other. Unimicron, Ibiden and AT&S merit attention, although shortages translate into earnings only where suppliers have qualified products and deliverable capacity. TSMC’s manufacturing and packaging strengths remain relevant, but Intel orders cannot immediately migrate following a shutdown. $NVDA’s roughly 4% decline showed relative resilience; it does not establish that data-center demand is insulated from broader risks. PC weakness, supply constraints and turnaround funding are now competing for investors’ attention. Intel’s approximately $20 billion capex plan and expected negative 2027 free cash flow extend the wait for investment returns. Watch AMD on Nov. 3 and Qualcomm and Arm on Nov. 4 to assess the breadth of PC weakness. Fab restart timing and substrate lead times will help distinguish delayed revenue from demand that has disappeared.

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