Morgan Stanley — Greater China Semiconductors: AI Semi... Morgan Stanley — Gre… · @2030FY_X · TwKit

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Morgan Stanley — Greater China Semiconductors: AI Semi... Morgan Stanley — Greater China Semiconductors: AI Semiconductor Supply Chain, Memory, CPO, Quantum Security Core conclusion: APAC semiconductor sector view — Attractive. The AI semiconductor demand outlook is strong, but chip inflation, AI substitution effects and China AI localization pose near-term disruptions; long-term bullish on advanced nodes, CoWoS packaging, HBM and the CPO supply chain, maintaining overweight ratings on core names such as TSMC. I. AI Semiconductor Macro Framework: Strong Demand and Threefold Pressure Long-term demand drivers: • Chip inflation: rising wafer, OSAT (packaging and testing) and memory costs will pressure chip design companies' gross margins in 2026, and price elasticity will dampen some end demand. • AI substitution effect: in addition to AI replacing labor on the demand side, supply chain resources are tilting toward AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in non-AI areas (such as T-Glass and commodity memory). • China AI localization: DeepSeek's low-cost inference capabilities are activating domestic inference AI demand, and the local foundry chain's supporting capabilities in AI GPU manufacturing continue to strengthen. II. Broader Semiconductor Cycle: Logic Foundry Capacity Utilization Poised to Reach 80% in 2H26 Excluding memory and Nvidia AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth is expected to turn negative in 2027. AI semiconductors (including cloud and edge) have become the sole engine of industry growth. III. In-Depth Analysis of TSMC's 3Q Results and Guidance 3Q26 results review: • Revenue NT$1.49tn (YoY +50.9%, QoQ +17.6%), slightly below MS estimate of NT$1.50tn but above consensus. • Gross margin 66.4% (up 696bps YoY, down 131bps QoQ), below MS estimate of 67.5%. • EPS NT$29.43 (YoY +68.7%, QoQ +8.0%), below MS estimate of NT$30.74 but above consensus of NT$28.65. • Operating margin 58.7%, up 808bps YoY. 4Q26 guidance: • Revenue guidance range of US$52.3bn to US$54.3bn (QoQ +14%); MS estimate NT$168.6bn, consensus NT$160.9bn. • Gross margin guidance 65.0%–67.0%; MS estimate 68.6% (above the upper end of guidance, reflecting optimistic expectations for advanced-node price hikes). • EPS guidance midpoint corresponds to NT$35.25 (MS estimate), QoQ +19.8%, YoY +80.8%. IV. TSMC's 2027 Pricing Power and Capex • Advanced-node wafer price hikes: amid persistently full capacity utilization and inflation pass-through, TSMC's leading-node wafer prices (including 2nm/3nm) may rise 5%–10% in 2027. • Capex revised upward: 2027/2028 capex forecasts raised to US$83bn/US$92bn, respectively, mainly for 2nm and CoWoS capacity expansion. • Strong 2nm demand: N2 capacity is expected to grow at a 70% CAGR over 2026–2028, with customers including Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Apple. • Node mix shift: N5 capacity to peak and decline in 2027, N3 to continue expanding, mature/specialty nodes to grow at a 7% CAGR over 2024–2029. • AI revenue mix jumps: AI semiconductor revenue as a share of total revenue is expected to rise from about 15% in 2024 to over 60% in 2029; AI revenue share will exceed 30% in 2026. V. Global Semiconductor Market and Cloud Capex Tracker • The global semiconductor market is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2027, with AI semiconductors contributing one-third (about $809 billion). • Capex growth at major cloud service providers (CSPs) is slowing: combined growth to fall to 12% in 2028, with cloud capex estimated at about $1.5 trillion/$1.6 trillion in 2027/2028, respectively (including the top 14 global CSPs, excluding sovereign AI). • GPU suppliers' P/E multiples are expected to re-rate after sustained QoQ revenue growth. VI. CoWoS Advanced Packaging: Strong Supply and Demand Through 2028 • TSMC CoWoS capacity: Driven by AI chip demand, global total CoWoS capacity may expand to 260k wafers per month (kwpm) by end-2028. • 2027 demand mix: NVIDIA 49% (1.222 million wafers), Broadcom 19% (484k wafers), AMD 14% (345k wafers), MediaTek 7% (180k wafers), Amazon AWS 4% (90k wafers). • Power consumption and wafer consumption: total GPU/ASIC power consumption is expected to reach tens of GW in 2027; AI compute wafer consumption will exceed $55 billion in 2027, with NVIDIA accounting for the vast majority. • HBM demand: total HBM consumption to reach 44 billion Gb in 2027, with NVIDIA remaining the largest buyer (60%+ of total), and HBM4 and 12-layer stacking becoming mainstream. VII. AI ASIC and Chip Testing: The Customization Wave • CSP in-house chip trend: Google TPU has iterated to its sixth generation, while AWS Trainium/Inferentia, Meta MTIA, and Microsoft Maia continue to ramp. Even with NVIDIA GPUs' strong performance, CSPs still need custom chips to optimize TCO and supply chain security. • Key name estimates: ◦ Alchip: Trainium 4 revenue may reach $8 billion in 2028, accounting for 82% of total revenue. ◦ MediaTek: TPU v10 (Icefish) adopts 1.4nm; total TPU revenue may reach $70 billion in 2029, dominating its AI ASIC revenue. ◦ KYEC: Benefiting from explosive demand for AI GPU, TPU, and CPU testing, AI-related testing revenue share to rise to 33%+ in 2027, with its largest customer (NVIDIA) contributing $715 million in revenue. VIII. Memory: CXMT's Rise and Structural Shortages • CXMT process roadmap: advancing to G5 (1γ nm) in 2026 and G5+ in 2027, narrowing the gap with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. In 2028, CXMT may account for 15% (about 500 kwpm) of global DRAM capacity of 3374 kwpm. • HBM plans: CXMT HBM TSV capacity 20 kwpm in 2026 → 40 kwpm in 2027 → 70 kwpm in 2028, with bit shipments accounting for 4.4% of the global HBM market in 2027. • Prices and supply/demand: AI memory demand to drive NAND shortages through 2026; NOR Flash will also face shortages in 2026; DDR4 shortages to persist into 2H26, with spot prices suppressed by contract prices. IX. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and Quantum Security • CPO market: TSMC PIC capacity 0.5kwpm in 2026 → 20kwpm in 2028; actual optical engine shipments to reach 73.87 million units in 2028. FOCI (Fiber Optic Communications) benefits from NVIDIA Rubin Ultra racks, with NVIDIA revenue share potentially reaching 82%/90% in 2027/2028, but its market share faces competition from TFC, Corning and others. • CPO testing flow: covers wafer-level, chip-level and module-level, with five insertion tests in total; from 2027, scale-up and scale-out switch products will run in parallel; testing service providers include SPIL (ASE) and equipment makers Chroma, Advantest, etc. • Allring (Allring Tech): benefits from CPO, a new US customer and non-TSMC CoWoS capacity expansion; 2027 revenue is expected to reach NT$18.0 billion (YoY +79%), with CPO share rising to 17%. • Quantum security: national PQC (post-quantum cryptography) migration roadmaps set 2030 as a key milestone (US/Europe/UK/Korea). Asymmetric encryption systems face quantum threats; PUF (physical unclonable function) TAM is about US$310 million in 2030, and quantum hardware security infrastructure TAM reaches US$110 billion in 2040. 10. Valuation and Risk-Reward Framework • Upside risks: AI capex beats expectations, advanced-node price hikes materialize, CoWoS/CPO penetration accelerates, China AI demand surges, memory prices rise. • Downside risks: cloud capex growth drops sharply, geopolitical trade friction, raw material cost stickiness, FX volatility, technology iteration below expectations, HBM overcapacity.

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