苹果今晚盘后交卷：别人考现金流，它考毛利率 Apple Reports After Tonight's Close: Others Are Graded o… · @sunkaixuan1718 · TwKit

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苹果今晚盘后交卷：别人考现金流，它考毛利率 Apple Reports After Tonight's Close: Others Are Graded on Cash — Apple Will Be Graded on Margin 先说时间，免得明天一早被标题党带偏：苹果2026财年第四季度财报在美股盘后公布，新闻稿约北京时间11月3日凌晨5点，电话会约6点。季度截至9月26日。这是约翰·特恩斯9月1日接任CEO后的第一场财报电话会，也是七巨头本轮财报季的最后一场。 上周的市场气氛，懂的都懂。Alphabet周四跌约12.6%，亚马逊盘后跌约7%，英特尔周五跌28.6%，纳指周五跌2.86%，创6月以来最差单日。整个十月，纳指100市值蒸发超2.5万亿美元。苹果年内涨了约27.49%，是少数还站在高位交卷的公司——但这份卷子考的东西，和上周那几家不一样。 上周那几家考的是现金流：花出去的钱有没有超过赚回来的钱。苹果这场考的是毛利率：每卖100美元的东西，还剩多少钱。 一、第一道题：毛利率，算术已经写在指引里了 苹果自己给的指引是：营收同比增长9%至11%，毛利率47%至48%。听起来不差，但要拆开看：这47%至48%里，约1个百分点是关税退税。扣掉它，核心毛利率只有约46%至47%。 对比一下6月季度：财报毛利率50.1%，但其中约2个百分点也是退税，扣掉后约48.1%。也就是说，即便苹果命中指引上限48%，核心毛利率仍然低于6月季度的约48.1%。这不是猜测，是指引本身的算术。 压力来自存储。市场分析称存储价格在3月、6月、9月连涨，独立测算称苹果库存9个月内从约57亿美元升至约111亿美元——提前备货的痕迹很明显。内存涨价吃掉的，正是这1到2个百分点的毛利率。今晚先看毛利率落在哪一端，再看管理层怎么说12月季度的成本。 二、第二道题：iPhone，9月季报只能算半张卷子 市场共识是：总营收约1133亿至1135亿美元（同比约+10.7%），EPS约1.99至2.00美元（去年同期1.85美元）；iPhone约564.8亿美元（同比约+15%），服务约315.8亿美元（同比约+10%），Mac约96.9亿美元。 但要注意口径：iPhone 18 Pro在季末前不久才上市，本季只贡献了约一周的销量；首款折叠机iPhone Duo 10月23日才开售，根本不计入本季。所以9月季报里的iPhone数字，说明不了新机的真实需求——它只能说明老机型卖得怎么样。 真正要听的，是特恩斯给出的第一个假日季指引。去年同期假日季iPhone卖了约853亿美元，市场汇总预期今年12月季度总营收约1530亿美元、EPS约2.93美元。9月数字是后视镜，12月指引才是方向盘。 三、第三道题：服务，增速能不能守住两位数 服务是苹果的利润压舱石，去年同期287.5亿美元、今年6月季度约307亿美元。但市场预期本季服务约315.8亿美元，同比约+10%——有分析认为这可能是三年多来最慢的增速。服务增速一旦跌破两位数，市场对“硬件见顶、服务接棒”这个故事的耐心会明显变薄。 最后提醒一句时间差：这篇是考前划重点，不是成绩单。真正的数字要等凌晨5点新闻稿，电话会6点才有指引。苹果约占标普500约6%、纳斯达克100约11%，这不只是一只股票的财报，指数今晚也要跟着交卷。本周还有11月3日中期选举、11月6日非农（调查预期新增约5.5万人），苹果只是这周第一道大题。 所以，值得吵的问题是：如果营收创了9月季度纪录、毛利率却跌破47%，你算它过关，还是不过关？评论区说说你站哪边。 Apple Reports After Tonight's Close: Others Are Graded on Cash — Apple Will Be Graded on Margin First, the timing, so tomorrow morning's headlines don't mislead you: Apple reports fiscal Q4 2026 after the U.S. close, with the press release due around 5 a.m. Beijing time on November 3 and the call around 6 a.m. The quarter ended September 26. It is John Ternus's first earnings call since he became CEO on September 1, and the last of the Magnificent Seven to report this season. Last week's mood needs no recap: Alphabet fell about 12.6% on Thursday, Amazon about 7% after hours, Intel 28.6% on Friday, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% on Friday, its worst day since June. Over October, the Nasdaq-100 shed more than $2.5 trillion in market value. Apple is up about 27.49% this year — one of the few companies still reporting from a position of strength. But its exam is different from last week's. Last week's companies were graded on cash flow: whether the money going out exceeded the money coming in. Apple will be graded on gross margin: of every $100 it sells, how much is left over. 1. Question one: margin — the math is already in the guidance Apple's own guidance calls for revenue growth of 9% to 11% and a gross margin of 47% to 48%. That sounds fine until you take it apart: about one percentage point of that margin comes from tariff refunds. Strip that out, and the core margin is only about 46% to 47%. Compare with the June quarter: reported margin 50.1%, of which about two points were refunds, leaving about 48.1% ex-refunds. In other words, even if Apple hits the top of its 47% to 48% guide, its core margin would still sit below June's roughly 48.1%. That is not a forecast — it is the guidance's own arithmetic. The pressure comes from memory. Market analysis says memory prices rose in March, June and again in September, and independent estimates put Apple's inventory at roughly $11.1 billion, up from about $5.7 billion over nine months — the footprint of buying ahead. Memory inflation eats exactly the one to two points of margin at issue. Tonight, watch which end of the range margin lands on, and what management says about December-quarter costs. 2. Question two: iPhone — the September quarter is only half a test Consensus expects total revenue of about $113.3 to $113.5 billion (up about 10.7% year over year) and EPS of about $1.99 to $2.00 (versus $1.85 a year earlier); iPhone about $56.48 billion (up about 15%), Services about $31.58 billion (up about 10%), and Mac about $9.69 billion. But mind the coverage: the iPhone 18 Pro went on sale shortly before quarter-end and contributed only about a week of sales; the first foldable, iPhone Duo, went on sale on October 23 and is not in this quarter at all. So the September iPhone number cannot tell us about demand for the new phones — it can only tell us how the old lineup sold. What actually matters is Ternus's first holiday-quarter guide. The iPhone did about $85.3 billion in last year's holiday quarter, and market estimates put this December quarter at about $153 billion in total revenue and $2.93 in EPS. September's numbers are the rear-view mirror; the December guide is the steering wheel. 3. Question three: Services — can growth hold double digits? Services is Apple's profit ballast: $28.75 billion a year ago, about $30.7 billion in the June quarter. But consensus puts this quarter at about $31.58 billion, up about 10% — which some analysts see as potentially the slowest growth in more than three years. If Services slips below double-digit growth, the market's patience for the "hardware peaks, services takes over" story will wear noticeably thinner. One timing note: this is a preview, not a report card. The real numbers arrive with the press release around 5 a.m., and the guide comes on the 6 a.m. call. At roughly 6% of the S&P 500 and 11% of the Nasdaq-100 by published weights, this is not just one stock's earnings — the indexes report tonight too. The week also holds the November 3 midterm elections and the November 6 payrolls report (surveys expect about 55,000 new jobs). Apple is just the week's first big question. So here is the question worth arguing over: if revenue sets a September-quarter record but gross margin slips below 47%, do you grade that a pass or a fail? Tell us which side you are on. #苹果 #Apple #财报 #Earnings #美股 #USStocks #内存涨价 #MemoryCosts #假日季 #HolidayQuarter

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