A Russian military jet doesn't have to be shot down to be lost early. RAND eng… · @pirrer · TwKit

@pirrer

A Russian military jet doesn't have to be shot down to be lost early. RAND engineer Michael Bohnert turns extra wartime flight hours into airframe life used up early. He calls them "imputed losses." A simple example: 100 fighters, each designed for 5,000 hours, fly 500 extra hours a year. That's 50,000 hours, the full design life of 10 jets, with none shot down. There isn't much slack. Bohnert estimated Soviet-era fighters were designed for about 2,000 to 3,500 hours, and some older jets may have only 500 to 1,000 left. In 2024, he put the MiG-31 fleet at under 20% of its life left and the Su-27 at about 35%. Several things add hours. Russia spans 17.1 million square kilometers, making uniform air-defense coverage impossible. As attacks on air bases grew, Russia dispersed some aircraft or moved them farther back. In September 2024, White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said the U.S. estimated that about 90% of the Russian aircraft used for glide-bomb and long-range strikes were located more than 300 km from Ukraine's border, matching the published maximum range of the U.S.-made ATACMS. Jets also fly long patrols and may be scrambled against drones over Russia. Ukraine's Defense Ministry says Russia dropped about 40,000 glide bombs in 2024. In March 2024, Bohnert projected that if trends held, the year's extra flying would use up the remaining life of about 60 older aircraft, or about 26 new ones. At the time, Russia was buying about 20 Su-30s, Su-34s and Su-35s a year. It shouldn't be overstated. Bohnert also notes glide bombs may shorten average missions. Justin Bronk of RUSI argues Russia's overall threat to NATO air power is higher than in 2022. And there's no evidence that the Tu-95 crash on September 29 had anything to do with excessive flying. Public data can't track how many Russian jets can actually fly, or for how long.

曝光 251 · 评论 0 · 点赞 0 · 书签 0