Well, TxFlow has already completed 3 epochs, and we can see that the average w… · @muarmemuar · TwKit

@muarmemuar

Well, TxFlow has already completed 3 epochs, and we can see that the average weekly points distribution is around 1.35M So I decided to estimate what points could potentially be worth if the points program runs until March 31, 2027, July 31, 2027, or October 31, 2027, assuming the average weekly distribution remains at 1.35M points. You can check out my calculations in the chart My take: Looking at Bitcoin's historical market cycles, 2026 is a bear market year, just like 2022 and 2018. This can also affect many projects, including perp DEXs. Of course, some strong projects are less dependent on market conditions, while others are much more exposed to them Take Avantis as an example. Based on its metrics before TGE in 2025, it wouldn't even rank in the top 20 on DefiLlama today by daily trading volume and OI. Yet that didn't stop it from reaching a $2.3B FDV at ATH after TGE, simply because Bitcoin was trading at $126K at the time. If Avantis had launched its token under current market conditions, I doubt its FDV would have even reached $200M 2027 should be a pre-bull market year, just like 2023, 2019, and 2016. I believe this will be particularly important for the FDVs of perp DEXs focused on RWA, and TxFlow is one of them There are two red flags I keep seeing CT bring up about TxFlow: first, that it's a Hyperliquid copycat, and second, that its huge BD team constantly spams KOLs with partnership offers in their DMs I'd like to remind everyone that TxFlow's founder is also the founder of BloFin, a tier 2-3 crypto exchange. Having a large BD team reaching out to people via DMs is pretty standard practice for exchanges of this size. I get DMs from managers at MEXC, WEEX, and Phemex all the time, but that hasn't stopped their tokens from reaching the following FDVs: MEXC ($MX) - $650M (ATH FDV: ~$2.4B) Phemex ($PT) - $300M (ATH FDV: ~$1.66B) WEEX ($WXT) - $100M (ATH FDV: ~$458M) As for the Hyperliquid copycat narrative, I think that's a pretty big stretch. Hyperliquid-related technology accounts for only around 20% of what the protocol actually offers. I don't see anything wrong with borrowing ideas or technology from the best in the industry When I was trading on Avantis, plenty of people were FUDing it because of high fees, a terrible funding system, and the repeated extensions of its points program. But when it launched its token during the market euphoria, with Bitcoin at $126K, it reached a $2.3B FDV TxFlow doesn't look like a scam to me, despite what many people seem to think. The perp DEX market isn't that huge, so maintaining such a large team, with not only a technical department but also a marketing department full of BDs reaching out to KOLs, doesn't look like a short-term play. It looks more like a long-term game. That said, I understand why some of these things might look suspicious to people on the surface But if we look at how similar business models work in the CEX industry, the FDVs of those exchange tokens speak for themselves. I think it's reasonable to apply a similar comparison to TxFlow, especially if it launches during favorable market conditions, which could have a significant impact on its FDV Here's my thesis: I expect TxFlow's TGE to happen in Q4 2027, with a token FDV somewhere around $400M-$500M and roughly 20–25% of the supply allocated to the airdrop. Based on these assumptions, I'm targeting a point price of around $1.8-$3.2 Of course, it's way too early to be certain about any of this. A lot can change over the next year. The project could shut down, or it could follow the Avantis playbook and launch during peak market euphoria with an FDV of at least $1.5B. In that scenario, all these rational point valuations would become irrelevant, as the price could start growing exponentially, with each point potentially being worth $5, $7, or even $10 If you're not trading on TxFlow yet, here's my code for a 5% fee discount: https://app.txflow.com/r/TXMUAR

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