What stage of the cryptocurrency market cycle are we currently in? Is now a go… · @fly_welinkBTC · TwKit

@fly_welinkBTC

What stage of the cryptocurrency market cycle are we currently in? Is now a good time to buy on dips? To state the conclusion first Cycle position: The distribution period after the bull market peak has ended, and we are now in the "valuation regression" phase in the middle and late stages of the bear market, but we have not yet reached the historical cycle bottom. BTC is currently priced at approximately $76,700 (Binance spot closing price $76,747, Hyperliquid mark price $76,646), representing a 39.2% pullback from the October 2025 high of $126,200. The monthly chart clearly shows a downward trend in highs: 126,200 → 97,924 (January) → 87,396 (September) → now 76,700. The core evidence for judging that it "hasn't bottomed out yet" is the on-chain valuation: MVRV is only 1.44. Z-score -0.31. Historically, the true cycle bottoms (2018, 2022) would see MVRV fall below 1.0 and Z-score drop below -1, and we are still quite far from that point. In other words, although prices have fallen significantly, the overall unrealized gains of holders have not yet been completely wiped out. Macroeconomic factors and events are also dragging things down: The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target at 3.75%–4.00%, despite high inflation. The US midterm elections bring uncertainty. Adding to the impact on confidence was the $6.3 billion theft from Binance on November 2nd. These are the factors that "suppress the rebound's height." It is not a factor that "creates the bottom". ETH and SOL are weaker: ETH is at 2,259 (-52.5%), barely holding above the 200-day moving average of 2,157, with a 90-day low of 1,854. SOL 91.5 (-61.5%), which is right on the 200-day moving average of 89.0, and the 90-day low of 72.4. These two are in a more dangerous position than BTC—once the 200-day moving average is broken, the downside potential opens up. Should I buy it now? It's better to buy in batches, but not to try and buy at the bottom all at once. Reasons: Valuations haven't reached extremes, ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, and leverage hasn't been cleared out. These three points suggest that the "bottom" has most likely not yet appeared. However, with prices above the 200-day moving average, exchange inventories declining, and sentiment entering a fear zone, these three factors mean that even "going completely out of the market now" carries the risk of missing out. $BTC $ETH $SOL

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