$AAOI $LITE A laser shortage that would survive a 20-30% cut in data center de… · @carrioresearch · TwKit

@carrioresearch

$AAOI $LITE A laser shortage that would survive a 20-30% cut in data center demand is a different asset from a neocloud that needs outside money to keep building. On November 4, Yunnan Germanium disclosed a 2027 contract to supply AAOI with 180,000 four-inch indium phosphide substrates for $194.4 million, part of a five-year framework for 900,000 wafers. The 2027 portion still needs Chinese export permits. Lumentum has disclosed more than $5 billion in purchase commitments for its second near-packaged or co-packaged optics program. A laser maker doesn't lock up five years of substrate for demand it expects to fade after one slowdown, and more than $5 billion committed to Lumentum's next optics design says the same about its customers. The tape isn't making that distinction today. At 12:51 p.m. ET, $AXTI was down 10.0%, $COHR 7.2% and AAOI 6.1%, while $NVDA was off 1.6%. I'm bullish on the laser layer here. It's being priced on the financing fears of AI builders, while its buyers are signing for supply years out.

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